Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries

(Joint with Samir Jahjah)

Abstract: This paper analyzes how exchange rate policy affects the supply and pricing of sovereign bonds

in developing countries. We define an exchange rate policy by the de facto exchange rate regime

and the real exchange rate misalignment. We empirically investigate three main channels through

which the exchange rate policy impacts sovereign credit spreads. The paper finds that (1) spreads

and the likelihood of issuing bonds depend on the exchange rate regime; (2) real exchange rate

overvaluation significantly increases sovereign bond issuing and bond spreads; (3) bond spreads

are the highest when the exchange rate is overvalued and the exchange rate regime is a hard peg.